Statistics and jurisdictional knowledge: some elements for a speech

Abstract

The need for statistics and law to meet somewhere and to talk to each other is widely recognized, both in Italy and abroad. For this reason, this contribution provides some basic elements of statistics potentially useful within a judicial knowledge process. Some examples of cognitive traps are presented; the level of uncertainty and the concept of natural variability are discussed; the correct use of the likelihood ratio is highlighted; a verbal equivalence scale is offered for such a ratio. Finally, a list of issues where these two disciplines can cooperate is offered, while the importance of recognizing the limits of the knowledge arising from the analysis of data and empirical evidence is eventually underlined.